In 1978, Paul Fraser sold a Beatles album sleeve for £45. Today, that item could sell for as much as
1,000 times that price…
I like Paul Fraser... He’s smart, inquisitive, and entrepreneurial. I’ve learned a lot about the autographs and memorabilia market from him. His 30 years of experience make him one of the world’s foremost authorities on the subject.
Over breakfast recently, I asked him what the secrets are to making good profits safely in the world of autographs and memorabilia.
First question Paul, have autograph prices really outperformed the stock market? Or has it been just The Beatles and a few other big names that have done well, while most others have underperformed?
Actually the Beatles autographs have performed in line with our Fraser’s 100 Index, which is a wide basket of top autographs. That index has tripled since we started it in 1997. So at least in the short history of the index, yes it’s true that autographs have beaten the stock market.
Paul, I noticed that an autograph of someone like Tiger Woods – who’s still alive and has many years left to sign – is actually about the same price as Beatle George Harrison, who’s no longer here to sign? Why is that?
Tiger actually doesn’t sign many autographs – that’s what it comes down to. George Harrison has actually just caught up with Tiger… His autograph has actually soared ten-fold in value since 1997. The fact that he died in that time pushed the price of his autograph higher. But ultimately, it’s about scarcity – supply and demand. In short, there’s no supply of Tiger autographs.
How do you know about the supply?
It’s not like stamps, where we know exactly how many were issued. We don’t know how many times a person signed their name. But after 30 years of buying and selling and studying, we have a good idea of these things now.
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Fakes and forgeries would be my biggest concern about buying an autograph or piece of memorabilia. How do you know what you’ve got isn’t a fake?
That’s the most important question... You might be surprised to hear this… but I’d guess that the majority of autographs sold on eBay are fakes.
We actually approach an autograph assuming it’s fake from the start, and then we go through our detailed process...
We ask things like… Is the type of paper consistent with paper from that person’s lifetime? How about the pen? How about the photograph itself – could it have existed during that person’s lifetime? Between my 30 years in the business and our company’s extensive reference collection of authentic examples and known fakes, we’re willing to make a lifetime guarantee of authenticity to our customers on items we sell.
Authentication is difficult, and fakes are all around. So the most important question when you buy is, who is making the guarantee? Are you confident in that guarantee? Is it Fly-By-Night Enterprises, or a company like ours, which is Europe’s leader, with 60,000+ items in stock and a 150-year history of honest dealing?
Shifting gears… Do you really think that autographs and memorabilia can continue to outperform the stock market?
Sure. Without question. I am an investor in shares too, by the way. Having run public companies, I think I know something about value in companies. But I also believe that autographs and memorabilia can keep outperforming… at least for another ten years.
The reason is simple…
The autograph market is purely collectors now – enthusiasts. Unlike the market for fine art, or fine wine, where investors are pushing prices beyond the reach of enthusiasts, the autograph market is still relatively simple. It has a sound base. The buyers love what they buy. They don’t really sell.
So I expect we’ll see a “natural” rate of growth in prices from these collectors and enthusiasts. Then on top of that, I expect investors will get more and more active in the market. The added buying activity by big investors – beyond that of the enthusiasts – is what will cause autograph returns to beat the stock market.
So Paul what’s hot now? And what areas in autographs and memorabilia do you think could rise in the next five-to-ten years?
Well, this might sound like a cliché, but I’ve learned that you want to buy the very best items you can buy. It sounds simple. But it’s true… those are the items that continue to go up in value. They are bought by people who don’t need to sell, so they are basically taken off the market, causing the price to go ever higher.
I think buying quality is even more important right now than usual, if I am right about investors coming in and pushing prices higher in the future. They’re going to want Beethoven or Lincoln, not the Mamas and the Papas. They’re going to want to the good stuff. So if you have £20,000 to spend, get one or two exceptional items, instead of 10 or 20 decent items. You’ll do better that way in the long run.
As for specific ideas, I still like a lot of the items listed in our 100 Index, but another area that I consider very undervalued and is within the reach of most budgets is 'Iconic' TV shows, Films and legendary sports teams....especially those that kind of creep under the radar screen. It is more difficult than you think to get a whole team, cast, group etc.
This was true of the 1966 World Cup winning team, and then Bobby Moore died. Butch Cassidy, Magnificent 7, Rat Pack, Dad's Army, Mash, The Munsters, The Adams Family, Dr.Who, Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, Monty Python, Heroes, Lost,Star Trek, Star Wars....I think you get the picture.
No secrets on the next 1,000-fold winner?
I wish I knew. If I’d known that Beatles album would go from £45 to £45,000, then I wouldn’t have sold it!
Thank you Paul. I always appreciate spending time with you.
My pleasure Steve.
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